Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 50 times out of 100

Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in...

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Research Co. 50.0%. Harris. 48.0%. Trump. +2 Harris. + More Polls. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's ...

Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Narrow victories in a handful of swing states are likely to determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election on November 5. This tracker uses the latest national...

The two major-party candidates, Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, are criss-crossing the country, scrambling to motivate voters. We...

Kamala Harris inched ahead of Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins in both polling guru Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s final forecasts on Tuesday, although both projections showed a...

Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now? Our polling average | The current leader in the presidential race, based on an average of national and state polls