Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome. A state’s tipping-point chance is the...

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Harris victory, while circles...

Given the historical voting patterns, current polling data, and the state’s Democratic leanings, it is highly likely that Kamala Harris will win the state of Washington in the 2024 presidential election. The state’s 12 electoral votes are expected to go to the Democratic candidate.

This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).

Follow our real-time estimates to see who’s ahead in the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump.

The seven swing states in the 2024 election were the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. [198] Trump secured victory in all seven states.

Plot each candidate’s best path to victory on our interactive map below. Build your projection using 2024 CNN ratings or past results. Click on each state -- or the state squares under the...

Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

It will take at least 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click or tap a state on the U.S. map, or adjust the toggle buttons below the map to make a pick.