See the latest polls, probabilities and scenarios for the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Find out which states are most likely to decide the outcome and how the race has changed over time.

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each candidate’s...

Live Presidential Forecast. We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. These graphics and estimates will no ...

The model combines polls, fundamentals and historical data to estimate the chances of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning each state and the electoral college. It shows a close race with Trump having a slight edge, despite losing the popular vote.

A data-driven electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts, a model created by Jack Kersting. See the current state of the race, the 2020-2024 electoral vote change, and customize your own map.

See the composite of ratings by several forecasters for the 2024 presidential election. The map shows the consensus for each state's electoral votes and the changes from 2020 to 2024.

Compare the current 2024 presidential forecasts from different forecasters, such as polls, prediction markets, and consensus projections. Use the interactive maps to create and share your own 2024 election scenarios.

See the most recent polling averages for the 2024 presidential race between Harris and Trump in various states. The web page updates the polls daily and adjusts them for sample size, methodology and house effects.

Learn how The Economist uses polls and fundamentals to predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. See the methodology, the projections, and the historical examples of polling errors and fundamentals-based forecasts.